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arXiv cs.LG · Papers

Reliability Scales Inversely: Bigger Models Compound Mistakes Faster via a Hidden Auto-Regressive Risk Regime

arXiv:2607.18292v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As language models scale, answers start truer but degrade faster: scaling buys capability but erodes reliability. The knowledge-gap account - more data, retrieval, or scale - misses an auto-regressive risk residual that scale sharpens: the model commits to a low-probabili