RT dnapLeopold (2024) reveals he gave up nearly $1 million in OpenAI equity because he refused to sign an NDA"My situation was a little different in…
arXiv:2608.05454v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic prediction heads in neural networks typically output either a Gaussian mixture or a single conformal region. Neither separates the distinct…
arXiv:2512.03057v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study distribution-free risk control for model routing, motivated by large language model reasoning. We formalize pointwise conditional efficiency under a…
arXiv:2608.05434v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sequential clinical decision-making often involves more than maximizing average efficacy. Clinicians may need to simultaneously optimize clinically relevant tails of the…
arXiv:2505.06800v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Diffusion-based generative models have renewed interest in stochastic differential equation methods for sampling from complex distributions. We study a setting in…
arXiv:2608.06290v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a new unit of analysis for longitudinal data: the Latent Memory Table. The scientific contribution is not the encoder.…
arXiv:2608.05136v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gradient descent on a factored model $W = UV^top$ is implicitly biased toward low-rank solutions, while Adam, starting from the same…
arXiv:2608.04430v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Filtering combines model predictions with measurements to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of a system state over time. The PDF…
arXiv:2604.06652v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Adaptive moment methods such as Adam use a diagonal, coordinate-wise preconditioner based on exponential moving averages of squared gradients. This diagonal…
arXiv:2604.01170v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While test-time scaling has enabled large language models to solve highly difficult tasks, state-of-the-art results come at exorbitant compute costs. These…
arXiv:2608.06340v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models have long been considered impractical beyond moderate dimensions: the likelihood is non-convex, the parametrization is identified…
arXiv:2511.17852v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers can acquire Chain-of-Thought (CoT) capabilities to solve reasoning tasks via fine-tuning. Reinforcement learning (RL) and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) are two…
arXiv:2608.05930v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The experience sampling method (ESM) is a longitudinal research design where participants report their thoughts, emotional states and behaviours multiple times…
arXiv:2608.06195v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic Regression Trees (PRTrees) are a smooth and consistent alternative to classical regression trees, producing continuous predictions through probabilistic split assignments.…
arXiv:2608.06206v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact…
arXiv:2608.06276v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Persistence diagrams (PDs) provide stable and interpretable summaries of multiscale topological structure. While substantial progress has been made in the statistical…
arXiv:2605.14599v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We establish novel structural and statistical results for entropy-regularized min-max inverse reinforcement learning (Min-Max-IRL) in finite-horizon MDPs with Borel state and…
arXiv:2608.06337v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A monotone adversary observes an i.i.d. labeled sample and appends a finite number of further examples of its choice, every one…
arXiv:2307.12022v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Optimizing individualized treatment sequences for patients who weigh multiple, competing outcomes differently poses a challenge for dynamic treatment regime (DTR) methods,…
arXiv:2608.05244v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We developed a unified covariate-adjusted causal inference framework for estimating the desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) probability for benefit-risk evaluation in…
arXiv:2512.17426v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We consider sparse signal reconstruction via minimization of the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty, and develop one-step replica-symmetry-breaking (1RSB) extensions…
arXiv:2506.02260v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Wearable devices enable continuous multi-modal physiological and behavioral monitoring, yet analysis of these data streams faces fundamental challenges including the lack…
arXiv:2510.22021v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Safety-critical applications of machine learning require uncertainty estimates that support reliable worst-case analysis. Neural networks (NNs) provide expressive function approximation, while…
arXiv:2104.11547v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Statistical models contain variables that are not random: parameters, treatments, environments, design points. Ordinary conditional independence cannot express relations involving such…