I agree that if you think "capabilities growth will be slower, spikier, and more data-limited than people currently assume", then you should be bearish on LLM…
Re Full post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJWBofhLQjf3KmRgg/four-ways-learning-econ-makes-people-dumber-re-future-ai
.@steve47285 has a great section on how to think about 'lump of labor fallacy' with AGIs in his post, "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber…
RT Shanu Mathew“The really interesting implication is that the frontier labs end up competing on who can afford the most compute. The labs making the most…
By the way, the fact that Ant revenue has been 10x-ing year over year, while compute has only been 3x-ing, suggests that there are very strong…
I think this is the most interesting prediction about what will happen in this world of 10x compute prices:If you can train the best, most efficient…
RT Nicolas BustamanteI agree with Dwarkesh even if it’s a contrarian take. The standard way of thinking is that AI gets cheaper every year. Better chips,…
RT Gavin BakerA series of fairly wild thoughts from Dwarkesh. I thought I was bullish but even I am not assuming that the price to rent…
"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has…
I discuss this in the next paragraph.If you applied this argument to people instead of AIs, it would be the classic lump of labor fallacy.Braden Buchanan:…