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arXiv stat.ML · Papers

When Is a Conformal Guarantee Fair? Auditing Silent Subgroup Under-Coverage in Alzheimer's Disease Longitudinal Prediction

arXiv:2608.04254v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Longitudinal prediction of Alzheimer's disease biomarkers increasingly informs clinical decisions, and a forecast is only useful if it also reports how much to trust it. Conformal prediction supplies this by wrapping any forecaster in a prediction band with a finite-sam