Measuring Is Not Enough Anymore
Is measuring general AI capabilities a good strategy to reduce AI existential risk, compared to other strategies? A disclaimer upfront: To answer that, one organization in…
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Don’t bring an AI detector to a deepfake fight: proving reality through multimodal provenance
Epistemic status: confident on the framing, speculative on the implementationTL;DR: Fake media detectors are on the losing end of an arms race. Instead of trying to…
A Simple Model of AI "Psychosis"
"AI Psychosis" has gone from an evocative term for people undergoing extreme delusions, sometimes even culminating in suicide, to the now colloquial insult for anyone who's…
The Termination Circuit (how reasoning models stop thinking).
Reasoning models since the dawn of o1 and R1 have a tendency to overthink. Despite a lot of work on early-exit methods and steering, open-weight and…
Notes on Tony Parkes' "Contra Dance Calling"
In 1992 Tony Parkes, one of the best-known New England contra dance callers, wrote a book: Contra Dance Calling: a Basic Text. In 2010 he published…
Plan A: Suggestions For Further Work
Yesterday we released AI 2040: Plan A, but there's lots of work left to do. We still have tons of uncertainty about the future of AI…
Freeing Thucydides
Prompted by discussion with Buck Shlegeris and others at the Forethought retreat. The idea that AI could bring an end to Thucydides traps is Buck’s. Speculative.…
An Induction Head in Disguise: Chasing Grammar in a Character-Level Transformer
Confident in the measurements — copying score, OV logits, attention patterns. More exploratory on the interpretations of what the head "knows," two of which I ended…
The standard can be to admit the existence of a standard
(The aspirant sequence (so far: Would You Work Harder In The Least Convenient Possible World?, That Which Cannot Be Poked With A Stick Is The Mind-Killer)…
Persona Cartography: Charting Language Model Personality Traits in Weight Space
This post summarises the paper Persona Cartography: Charting Language Model Personality Traits in Weight Space.Paper | GitHub | HuggingFaceTL;DRUnderstanding and controlling the character of LLMs is…