AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say
This post is a synthesis of 11 Metaculus analyses run between Oct 2024 and May 2026, seeking to summarize everything we know about AI forecasting and…
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(A Poor) Altruist's Bible – To help or not to help when we have limited resources, and how do we know?
Presentation“The Altruist’s (Poor) Handbook” – a name that seems a bit degrading, how do you define poor? “Do I compare myself to Elon Musk or a…
Don't train away eval awareness until you know why it's there
OpenAI and Apollo have published a blog post introducing a new term, metagaming. This term describes models changing their reasoning or/and behavior based on their belief…
How Valuable are Traditions?
epistemic status: exploratoryAre traditions just a product of idiosyncratic events or is there something deeper they reflect? Let's first see an example of how traditions can…
How much slower does takeoff go with 10× less compute?
About 6x slower in the median case, with an 80% confidence interval of 3.5x to 8x. SetupDefine the "R&D compute" (in, say, H100-equivalents) of an AGI…
Human Empowerment in an AI Society
Thanks to Benjamin Schmidt and Luke McNally for the discussions around this topic and their feedback on an early draft of this article!Gradual disempowerment is one…
The mosquito bucket of doom works
The mosquito bucket of doom is a population control mechanism where you dissolve some Bti (Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis) into a bucket and allow the mosquitoes to…
[Linkpost]Six Story Prompts I Want to Read
Below are six story prompts that you might enjoy. Especially intended for my writer friends, but hopefully other people might find it fun to try writing…
How did we get to democracy?
We’re really interested in how we ended up living in a democracy - and we think that you should be too. Not only is it just…
the allston lab rat existential framing
Preface: DO NOT READ IF ACTIVELY DEPRESSED OR SU*CIDAL. i do not endorse such actions or views, i merely speculate in order to then find honest…